Yesterday, we gave you details on the new Fox schedule, a schedule heavy on singing competitions and light on new shows. However, a couple of those new shows look outstanding. A couple of others don’t look so great. Based on the clips, however, Fox is likely to have a much better fall than NBC. There are definitely two hits here, and two others have the potential to be. The one from the creators of “How I Met Your Mother” looks terrible, which of course means that it’ll be on for 12 seasons.
Fox has unveiled their fall schedule ahead of their upfront presentation, and their strategy mostly seems to be: If it ain’t broke, let’s milk it for another season. Like every other season of the last decade, Fox is building its schedule around “American Idol” and, now, “The X-Factor.” Despite dwindling ratings — in part because of the proliferation of “American Idol” copy-cats, INCLUDING “The X-Factor” — “American Idol” still remains the top rated show on network television, and the most profitable (“The X-Factor” is the second most profitable). How does Fox make them even MORE profitable with ratings decreases? Easy: Pad them out into two hours apiece (instead of 90 minutes followed by a low-rated sitcom). Will that mean more singing? No! Of course not. It’ll mean more product placement and more commercials, silly.
Meanwhile, the animation block — “The Simpsons,” “Family Guy,” “Bob’s Burgers,” and “The Cleveland Show” — will all return to fill out the Sunday night lineup. “House” is gone on Mondays, but it’ll be replaced by “Bones.” “My Boss,” a show starring Jordano Spiro as a surgeon trying to help the family pay back a debt to the mob, will follow at 9 EST in the fall. Kevin Bacon’s new show, “The Following” — about a complicated relationship between an FBI agent and a serial killer he captured — will hold that slot in the spring.
It was a busy night for the Fox Network ahead of next week’s upfronts, as they made several announcements regarding returning shows, shows not returning, and a few new pick-ups, neither of which were a surprise. Let’s break it down:
Renewals: “Touch” — The renewal of Kiefer Sutherland’s new wishy-washy, “Touched by an Autistic Math Genius” drama was not a huge surprise. Ratings were solid, but buzz was not high. I gave it a semi-positive review after its debut, but at the time, my wife had just given birth to twin girls. Never trust a new father’s judgement when it comes to sappy television. I haven’t watched the show since, nor do I have any intention of doing so in the future.
Cancellations: “The Finder” and “Alcatraz” — J.J. Abrams is two for four in developing new series since “Lost.” “Person of Interest” and, for a while anyway, “Fringe” were hits (and both are still on the air). Meanwhile, “Undercovers” and now “Alcatraz” have been canceled. “Alcatraz,” besides giving Hurley a job, was kind of a dippy time-travel, prison procedural, sort of a J.J. Abrams blender of elements. Meanwhile, the “Bones” spin-off, “The Finder,” never found much of an audience, so it will not return. It is interesting to note, however, that both “Alcatraz” and canceled “Terra Nova” had higher ratings than “Touch,” and yet it’s the Kiefer show that moves on.
As I predicted in the Bubble Watch earlier this week, despite bad ratings — and I mean, in the toilet — “Fringe” has been picked up for a fifth and final season.
Though producers were optimistic about a pickup, they reportedly shot two endings of the upcoming fourth season finale just in case a deal didn’t come through. “Fringe” averaged a mere 4 million viewers and a 1.6 rating in the adult demo, including DVR. Compare that to a first-year show that Fox cancelled — “Terra Nova” — which averaged 10.1 million viewers and a 3.6 adult demo rating. Likewise another Fox first-year series, “Alcatraz,” which like “Fringe” is also produced by J.J. Abrams, performed better than the Friday night show, yet is considered unlikely to receive a second year.
The difference between the higher-rated “Alcatraz” and “Terra Nova,” of course, is that “Fringe” is a substantially cheaper show to produce, and its small but ardent fan base are likely to pick up the DVDs. Plus, it’s got a decent life afterwards in Netflix licensing.
Renewal season is right around the corner. By the end of April through the first of May, final decisions will be made on the fate of most network televisions shows. It’s a nervous, jittery time, but it really shouldn’t be. Not anymore. For all the hand-wringing we do about cancelation fears, the reality is: Good shows that have been around for at least a season are rarely canceled anymore. Networks are no longer in the driver’s seat. New shows are increasingly difficult to launch. How many new big hits were there in the 2011-2012 season? Zero. How many moderately-sized hits were there? Four: “New Girl,” “Once Upon a Time,” “Revenge” and — so far — “Don’t Trust the B—- in Apt. 23.” With the increased competition from cable, it’s harder and harder to land a new show, so the networks tend to stick with what they know, even if it’s low-rated. This explains five seasons of “Chuck” and four seasons of “Fringe,” and the yearly renewal of “Community” and “Parks and Rec” despite anemic ratings. You know they’re doing gangbusters on the back-end with those shows on DVD and online licensing, though. They just have to be.
Ultimately, I wouldn’t worry too much about losing a favorite show, except for one:
ABC
On ABC, the only major bummer is the likely cancelation of “Cougar Town.” In an ideal world, it could be paired with “Happy Endings” and “Apt. 23″ in perhaps the best comedy block on network television. That’s still a possibility, and Tuesday nights would be ideal, though it woud leave the higher-rated “Last Man Standing” without a suitable pairing. More likely, only two of the three will be renewed, and “Apt. 23″ and “Happy Endings” have the better ratings. The one leg “Cougar Town” has up on the other two is two more seasons, which makes it closer to syndication money. The strike against it, however, is that Bill Lawrence is off working on a new show for another network.
Meanwhile, it’s not official yet, but “Modern Family,” “Suburgatory,” and “The Middle” will all be renewed as well, and “The Middle” may be better paired with “Last Man Standing” next season. If anyone is interested, “The Missing” will probably be canceled, however.
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